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British coal mine disaster data by year for the years 1851-1962
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Isolate the number of disasters by year:
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The year of the most prominent change can be found by the following procedure. Let k denote this year and assume that the data on either side of k are Poisson distributed with respective means θ and λ. Then the likelihood of k on a log scale is given by the following function:
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An estimate for the posterior probability mass of the unknown value of k under the assumption of a flat prior probability mass function for k is:
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Marshall Bradley, "British Coal Mining Disaster Data" from the Wolfram Data Repository (2022)